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Thanks Brick.
New York puzzles me. NY has a population of 19 million and has 26,000 confirmed cases.
What caused this degree of infection to go so "viral"?
Reason for rapid transfer is this has been labeled by most as being droplet contamination. Well, if you cough or sneeze, contaminants remain aerosolized for up to 3 hours. That is scary!
Also scary is that we have to rely others in the public to think it is fine to be out in the public, unsure if they are Covid 19 positive.
 

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One explanation I've seen for Italy being out in front is that many Italian companies like to advertise "made in Italy" so they have been using lots of Chinese guest workers who returned from their Chinese New Year trips to China a little before covid-19 erupted in Italy.

Infection speeds are no doubt faster in crowded places like New York. Death counts may be a more accurate indicator of the number of infections than confirmed cases, although it lags by maybe three weeks. Confirmed cases counts are definitely affected by how much testing is being done. The number of deaths is affected by medical treatment, but until a system is overwhelmed (as in Italy and soon to be lots of other places) most severe infections are being treated pretty much the same way in most places - at least in first world countries. Other than those placed in clinical trials for medications, treatment is largely just supportive: oxygen, IV fluids, and ventilators.

Once the number of infections is past some point, testing and tracing contacts and isolating those people simply isn't feasible. Even if we had unlimited testing capacity, the US is past that point. The only way to slow the spread of infections (beyond hand washing and personal protective equipment, which is still in very short supply) is shutting things down as much as possible to minimize exposure. Hopefully, we can slow the spreading of infections down enough to buy time to build up medical testing and treatment capacity, avoid overwhelming the existing capacity by flattening the curve, identify effective drug treatments, and develop vaccines. If the current rate of infections continues our medical systems may well collapse and we are looking at maybe a million deaths in the US alone, many tens of millions world wide.

Relaxing the restrictions prematurely will stimulate the pandemic - not the economy. It is false hope to think the country will be open for business by Easter. This stuff about the cure being worse than the disease is nonsense, even if it is stated in all caps. The only people for whom that might be true are those whose re-election chances are imperiled by a faltering economy and who don't have to worry about getting access to a ventilator if they do get sick. No matter how scarce they are, a president or a senator or even a lieutenant governor and their families will get a ventilator and the best available treatment if they need it. The fastest and surest way to revive the economy is to control the outbreak. Until then, I'm all for things like the unprecedented huge stimulus package in the senate (BTW, I thank the Democrats for some oversight strings being attached to the $500 billion for large companies. Otherwise it would have been total pork barrel time.) to help individuals and businesses large and small survive until the health crisis is controlled, even if it means there is increased inflation sometime down the road. The economy will come back but the people who die won't.
 

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New York not only has a very high population density, but it also has many citizens who do not own cars and rely on public transportation and thus are using the subways, taxis, etc. The second case identified in New York was athe guy working at the legal firm. He passed it to his family members...and he also passed it to his neighbor who drove him to the hospital the one night. Was it a twenty minute drive in the same car with the guy? Don't know...but it appears to be very contagious. Put in all the mingling with people in the subways, on the streets, etc...and New York exploded.

Four cases announced on the USS Theodore Roosevelt today. They had a port visit in Guam that started on Feb 7...maybe that lasted a week (they had departed home port in San Diego in early January). Figure they left Guam around Feb 15th and have been at sea for five weeks and they finally got some test kits and diagnosed the first four cases, which they evacuated to Guam. How many others in the ships 5600 person crew are going to eventually be diagnosed with COVID-19. This is going to be eye-opening.
 

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I’m a fan of this site...

Coronavirus Dashboard

Developed by a 17 yr old that wanted more up to date data...it scrubs multiple sites every few seconds to update.

Also, if you have an hour to spare, here’s Bill Gates on the topic.

TED Connects

I like his statement that goes something like this...the economy can and will bounce back, but you can’t bounce back a dead body.
 

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Influenza Description Per World Health Organization
Influenza is a contagious, acute respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses, usually influenza A or B subtypes. Influenza can cause mild to severe illness, and it may predispose to exacerbations of underlying disease or development of secondary bacterial infections. Some people are at risk for serious influenza complications, such as pregnant women, older people, young children, and people with certain chronic health conditions. Immunization is the best intervention to prevent influenza virus infection.

Influenza viruses can infect humans and other animals. Viruses that infect humans circulate in seasonal epidemics, although some tropical regions experience endemic influenza circulation. Influenza viruses are continuously changing, necessitating annual updates of influenza vaccine formulations. Occasionally, animal influenza viruses may also infect humans. These infections can manifest in a broad range of clinical symptoms from mild disease to death.
350px-InfluenzaCaseMortality.svg.png

CURRENT FLU SEASON vs. COVID 19
FLU Infections
: 800,000,000 worldwide, 34,000,000 to 49,000,000 United States est. for current flu started in November/December of 2019.

Coronavirus Infections: 460,611 worldwide confirmed as of 3/25/20, 62,852 United States. Believed to have started December of 2019.

FLU Deaths: 450,000 to 1,200,000 est. worldwide, 20,000 to 52,000 est. United States.

Coronavirus Deaths: 20,842 worldwide, 73,650 China, 9,362 Italy, 392 US, 3,445 Spain, 186 Germany, 2077 Iran, 1,331 France as of 3/25/20.

Coronavirus Description Per World Health Organization
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses which may cause illness in animals or humans. In humans, several coronaviruses are known to cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The most recently discovered coronavirus causes coronavirus disease COVID-19.

COVID-19 is the infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus. This new virus and disease were unknown before the outbreak began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019.

The most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Some patients may have aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat or diarrhea. These symptoms are usually mild and begin gradually. Some people become infected but don’t develop any symptoms and don't feel unwell. Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing special treatment. Around 1 out of every 6 people who gets COVID-19 becomes seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing. Older people, and those with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, are more likely to develop serious illness. People with fever, cough and difficulty breathing should seek medical attention.

How does COVID-19 spread?
People can catch COVID-19 from others who have the virus. The disease can spread from person to person through small droplets from the nose or mouth which are spread when a person with COVID-19 coughs or exhales. These droplets land on objects and surfaces around the person. Other people then catch COVID-19 by touching these objects or surfaces, then touching their eyes, nose or mouth. People can also catch COVID-19 if they breathe in droplets from a person with COVID-19 who coughs out or exhales droplets. This is why it is important to stay more than 1 meter (3 feet) away from a person who is sick.

WHO is assessing ongoing research on the ways COVID-19 is spread and will continue to share updated findings.

Can CoVID-19 be caught from a person who has no symptoms?
The main way the disease spreads is through respiratory droplets expelled by someone who is coughing. The risk of catching COVID-19 from someone with no symptoms at all is very low. However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill. WHO is assessing ongoing research on the period of transmission of COVID-19 and will continue to share updated findings.


Cold Flue CV.jpg

top-10-global-causes-of-deaths-2016.jpg
 

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The stats record the numbers tested not the actual cases, so as more test they find a higher number to report. Stop testing and the numbers will drop amazingly
 

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Epidemic: The occurrence of more cases of a disease than would be expected in a community or region during a given period of time.

Pandemic (World Health Organization): Worldwide spread of a new disease.
 

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But all the usual causes of death (heart disease, flu, car wrecks, etc.) aren't threatening to overwhelm and collapse our health care systems. If they collapse we will also see a huge increase in fatalities from the usual causes.
 

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But all the usual causes of death (heart disease, flu, car wrecks, etc.) aren't threatening to overwhelm and collapse our health care systems. If they collapse we will also see a huge increase in fatalities from the usual causes.
Totally agree. We are prepared for the case loads from those other causes of death (typically). Those other causes also don't create chaos in the health care system by incapacitating doctors, nurses and other front line personnel. We are not prepared for the caseloads associated with a pandemic disease. Keep in mind that only a small percentage of the hospital available beds are equipped for critical cases and all of those other reasons for mortality as you mention continue to happen (traffic accidents are probably down) so the hospitals still have a normalish influx of normal cases. The whole system is unprepared from supply chain to beds, equipment, and staff and that is the root cause and why we must flatten the curve.
 

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As I have probably mentioned somewhere already .......watching the world get brought to its knees by a “Virus” ?

How fragile we are ......Humans, Infrastructure, Economies. No big showboating comment, just a guy standing at the side of this pandemic thinking .....impressive effort by something we can‘t even see with our own eyes?

What lessons do we learn from this ? ......we can’t see repeats of this every ? years, as the world population rapidly expands and we relentlessly exploit/extract etc. Trillions will have been spent firefighting this, so, important people somewhere better be planning avoidance of Covid - The Sequel. I get the vaccine thing will hopefully come however, we need an avoidance plan.

Bet you if it happened again they would not [email protected] about with the will we/won’t we Lockdown thing, otherwise this thing just charges around the planet, at least the facts this time show it did. How do we plan for the “variations” that tend to follow - I’m not being a harbinger of doom, merely asking .......what next?

Just think of all those nuclear weapons parked up doing [email protected] all (Thankfully) and this invisible/air we breath virus marches across the planet using us as transport? Trump nor Putin couldn’t stop it. Time for a pause/reality check, reset the world and think ......so, the Dinosaurs were busying chillin‘, dominating the earth, then Boom, they’re history? .......no, again, not a harbinger of doom, just thinking ......what do we learn from this, what action must we take to avoid a repeat - the World can’t keep hitting the stop button and empty it’s savings account every time this kinda sh!t kicks off.

When this is under control .....I want to hear the Plan B Options that can feasibly become Plan A.

I sit here in a UK Lockdown, working from home, planning my business recovery from this, working daily to keep the business pendulum swinging .......but thinking, what lessons do WE learn. Our world has been brought to its knees by a [email protected]’ virus. The wealthy may be protected in many ways however it is the footsoldiers that keep the world spinning on its axis. Old Jeff B, Bill G, D J Trump, Vlad etc ......they are useless without us, yet it is us who are sitting at home.

On a positive note ......we will get through this sh!te because The Human Race thus far, digs deeper, however this Wee Covid [email protected] has given us a Global 2 Fingered Salute ......so, what have we learned?
 

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21,000,000 fewer cell phone users in China now, then 3 months prior. Hmmmm....

 

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The female species have a knack of just cutting to the quick!

When Covid19 chatting with my Good Lady tonight, who is on the frontline in the NHS (National Health Service) in the UK, she said the following (in response to me showing her some of the various Covid Stat Website Links posted here, on our K16 forum)......

“Do u think the bikers know more men get it , Have more severe symptons and higher death rate ...... just to be cheery !”

I rest my case Gentlemen & Ladies .......WTF do we know. Listen to those actually dealing with it!

Goodnight 👍
 

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Here's a cool thing some are doing in response to the pandemic: Several local distilleries are taking their supplies of ethyl alcohol (some distill it themselves and some purchase it to make their spirits) and making it into hand sanitizer and donating it to local hospitals and first responders.
 

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Here's a cool thing some are doing in response to the pandemic: Several local distilleries are taking their supplies of ethyl alcohol (some distill it themselves and some purchase it to make their spirits) and making it into hand sanitizer and donating it to local hospitals and first responders.
Maybe we should be building stills at home right now :)
 

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We are getting inquiries from local doctors to allow them to stay in our AirBnb's for the duration. nb: I call them AirBnb's for convenience. Many of these apartments rent as longer term short term rentals and not through AirBnb. For example, out of country workers at our local hospitals, our university, those waiting for their new home to be ready, etc.

Even though we are getting cancellations because of the pandemic in the next couple of weeks we have zero openings. This puts a lot of stress on the doctors who need to work but do not want to go home nightly to their families.
 

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I've been either in the military (retired) or embedded in a military unit for the last 35 years. I have participated in endless military exercises but a few months ago the unit I work for, along with the entire base had an exercise seeing how prepared they'd be if the electrical grid got infiltrated. The idea was that China has the ability to incapacitate the electrical and communications grid of our entire country, how could the base survive if that happened. Well, the results were less than acceptable.
So, with this pandemic that came from China, I'm suggesting that it's a test and we are figuring out how to survive without very much preparation. How do you think we're doing overall? What if the pandemic happened along with a grid attack?
We're a vulnerable country/world. Please take lessons learned so far and prepare yourselves for a future attack of similar strength but keep in mind that this time was much easier than the next.
Ps. NYC is bringing in refrigerated trailers to keep the bodies in, they had over 100 dead just last night.
 

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Meanwhile, this country has millions of empty RVs sitting on lots. Boy, what a gesture of goodwill it would be to press into service those empty mobile homes.
We no longer live in a simple world :(

With zoning, building codes, liability insurance, etc the way it is unless you have the proper zoning, inspections and insurance already in place it would take the bureaucrats months to get approvals.

For example, a parking lot is not zoned for residential use. It also does not have the proper sewage and electric utilities to handle it. If someone hurts themselves in one of these units that are not approved who pays?

It is the same thing with our "homeless" problem. If it were easy we would already be doing it.

That is the cynical me.
 
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